Could UKIP become a real political force in Wales, to mirror what they have achieved electorally in England? Judging by their leader Farage's boasts they already are, because he described last week's astonishing gains in the local elections as a 'sea-change in British politics'.
In the media English became synonymous with 'national' and the results in Ynys Mon were hardly noted, where they took a mere 7.8% of the vote, yet still beat the Tories!
UKIP no doubt appeal to those who are understandably cynical about mainstream parties. They also appeal to those (from all classes) who seek to blame immigration for society's ills. They appeal to those who rail against bureaucracy ,but are horrified at the horse-meat scandal caused by less regulation in the food industry. Many see the European Union as the source of all evil.
Crucially, they fill a widening gap in the English identity crisis, only heightened by Scotland's moves towards greater self-determination. A place for those who don't want to be tarnished by the overt fascism of BNP and EDL.
They are the respectable side of xenophobia , with their motto of 'It's not about race, but about space!' This conceals an underlying racism that spreads fear about millions of Romanians and Bulgarians descending on this Disunited Kingdom.
The 'No to Europe!' negative rallying cry of UKIP is very similar to the Loyalists in n.Ireland, who constantly define themselves by what they are not and not what they are.
UKIP see themselves are quintessentially British, yet their narrow-minded obsession with sealing the borders reflects the worst aspects of English jingoism ; the very opposite of the Occupy movement with its idealism and anarchism harkening back to the Diggers and Levellers.
So, given this, how could they possibly appeal to the people of Cymru?
Well, in Merthyr Tudful we recently had two UKIP Councillors and still have one; moreover, the Welsh UKIP MEP John Bufton has anticipated gains in next year's European elections.
I happen to agree with him for a number of reasons and believe that pro-EU parties will see a marked decline in their votes.
The appeal of their anti-immigration stance and British triumphalism certainly attracts right-wing elements who either see the BNP as too extreme , or the Tories as too weak.
In my street alone, there are at least two such people: blatant racists who might not vote for an overtly fascist party, but would definitely consider UKIP.
More significantly, their anti-EU stance has no left-wing equivalent.
Social Democratic parties like Plaid Cymru are slavishly uncritical of the EU, yet so many of its worst manifestations are destroying the lives of working-class people.
Workers are lured from country to country with the promise of higher wages, only to be exploited by companies and then discarded. Countries such as Cyprus are forced to kow-tow to the Troika and deploy vicious austerity measures.
The EU has become an autocratic monetarist Union, which has appointed technocrats in the governments of Greece and Italy, who weren't even elected to govern!
The reality in Cymru for years is that we have been neglected both by Westminster and by Europe and our continuing poverty and unemployment is an indictment of both levels of government.
Naturally, we need to co-operate with others of a similar ilk, with workers and progressive groups throughout the world who share our interests and aspirations. Especially with those movements who, like ourselves , are struggling against larger nation-states.
There's no doubt UKIP will get support from those in Wales who see themselves as exclusively British and are still opposed to devolution (this includes Labour and Tory voters).
However, I feel that a genuine disillusionment with the EU will express itself in greater support for the obnoxious UKIP.
Another factor will be voter apathy. Many will not vote because they cannot see how European institutions are affecting their lives, yet can see that it's the ConDem Coalition which is causing them to become poorer in every way.
Where is the leftist alliance capable of arguing a case against an EU which exists increasingly to improve the lot of banks and companies? Where is the force for genuine change from outside these bodies, where people can set up their own alternatives and take power into their hands, rather than simply making a cross on a square : a paper kiss and a thrown-away promise.
THEY'RE COMING, 29 MILLION!
Romanians and Bulgarians are coming,
29 million of them,
shiploads across the Channel,
we cannot stop them!
How many Dimitar Berbatovs
will be among them?
They'll bring their horse-meat
with them, more contamination.
Like Vlad the Impaler,
like vampires from Transylvania ;
I've been to Sunny Beach,
I know those shady dealers.
Bulgarians and Romanians are coming,
not just Romanies on the run
flogging their Big Issues,
but the real thing this time.
They'll be taking all the jobs
we haven't got, the Council housing
which has been sold off,
opening unpronounceable shops.
They'll be living off benefits
and working on fruit farms,
they'll be gangs of pick-pockets
converging on every town.
They're coming, 29 million,
to suck red blood from the Union!
I've got nothing against them as people,
but there's just no room.
In the media English became synonymous with 'national' and the results in Ynys Mon were hardly noted, where they took a mere 7.8% of the vote, yet still beat the Tories!
UKIP no doubt appeal to those who are understandably cynical about mainstream parties. They also appeal to those (from all classes) who seek to blame immigration for society's ills. They appeal to those who rail against bureaucracy ,but are horrified at the horse-meat scandal caused by less regulation in the food industry. Many see the European Union as the source of all evil.
Crucially, they fill a widening gap in the English identity crisis, only heightened by Scotland's moves towards greater self-determination. A place for those who don't want to be tarnished by the overt fascism of BNP and EDL.
They are the respectable side of xenophobia , with their motto of 'It's not about race, but about space!' This conceals an underlying racism that spreads fear about millions of Romanians and Bulgarians descending on this Disunited Kingdom.
The 'No to Europe!' negative rallying cry of UKIP is very similar to the Loyalists in n.Ireland, who constantly define themselves by what they are not and not what they are.
UKIP see themselves are quintessentially British, yet their narrow-minded obsession with sealing the borders reflects the worst aspects of English jingoism ; the very opposite of the Occupy movement with its idealism and anarchism harkening back to the Diggers and Levellers.
So, given this, how could they possibly appeal to the people of Cymru?
Well, in Merthyr Tudful we recently had two UKIP Councillors and still have one; moreover, the Welsh UKIP MEP John Bufton has anticipated gains in next year's European elections.
I happen to agree with him for a number of reasons and believe that pro-EU parties will see a marked decline in their votes.
The appeal of their anti-immigration stance and British triumphalism certainly attracts right-wing elements who either see the BNP as too extreme , or the Tories as too weak.
In my street alone, there are at least two such people: blatant racists who might not vote for an overtly fascist party, but would definitely consider UKIP.
More significantly, their anti-EU stance has no left-wing equivalent.
Social Democratic parties like Plaid Cymru are slavishly uncritical of the EU, yet so many of its worst manifestations are destroying the lives of working-class people.
Workers are lured from country to country with the promise of higher wages, only to be exploited by companies and then discarded. Countries such as Cyprus are forced to kow-tow to the Troika and deploy vicious austerity measures.
The EU has become an autocratic monetarist Union, which has appointed technocrats in the governments of Greece and Italy, who weren't even elected to govern!
The reality in Cymru for years is that we have been neglected both by Westminster and by Europe and our continuing poverty and unemployment is an indictment of both levels of government.
Naturally, we need to co-operate with others of a similar ilk, with workers and progressive groups throughout the world who share our interests and aspirations. Especially with those movements who, like ourselves , are struggling against larger nation-states.
There's no doubt UKIP will get support from those in Wales who see themselves as exclusively British and are still opposed to devolution (this includes Labour and Tory voters).
However, I feel that a genuine disillusionment with the EU will express itself in greater support for the obnoxious UKIP.
Another factor will be voter apathy. Many will not vote because they cannot see how European institutions are affecting their lives, yet can see that it's the ConDem Coalition which is causing them to become poorer in every way.
Where is the leftist alliance capable of arguing a case against an EU which exists increasingly to improve the lot of banks and companies? Where is the force for genuine change from outside these bodies, where people can set up their own alternatives and take power into their hands, rather than simply making a cross on a square : a paper kiss and a thrown-away promise.
THEY'RE COMING, 29 MILLION!
Romanians and Bulgarians are coming,
29 million of them,
shiploads across the Channel,
we cannot stop them!
How many Dimitar Berbatovs
will be among them?
They'll bring their horse-meat
with them, more contamination.
Like Vlad the Impaler,
like vampires from Transylvania ;
I've been to Sunny Beach,
I know those shady dealers.
Bulgarians and Romanians are coming,
not just Romanies on the run
flogging their Big Issues,
but the real thing this time.
They'll be taking all the jobs
we haven't got, the Council housing
which has been sold off,
opening unpronounceable shops.
They'll be living off benefits
and working on fruit farms,
they'll be gangs of pick-pockets
converging on every town.
They're coming, 29 million,
to suck red blood from the Union!
I've got nothing against them as people,
but there's just no room.
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